May
9
2013

Unofficial Guide to Ranking the Survivor: Caramoan Final Five

As we get ready for Sunday’s Survivor: Caramoan finale, here are a few notes on the final five, what they’ve done to deserve to win, and their spoiler-free odds of winning. This is not a boot list and there are no future spoilers here, and odds are based on winning in the final 3, not making it to the final 3.

Because we’re avoiding future spoilers here, we’re also not taking into account the possibility of a castaway leaving due to injury in the finale, as hinted in last night’s finale preview.

Cochran

Cochran

This game is Cochran’s to lose. He needs to get rid of Eddie and eliminate the possibility of sympathy votes/angry revenge votes that Eddie might receive in a final 3 scenario, but there’s no one else that played the game as well as Cochran. He got along with everyone, he made smart, gutsy, calculating moves, and there are other people, namely Dawn, who will bear the brunt of the ill will for the boots that went down (namely Andrea and Brenda).

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds: 3 to 1

Dawn

Dawn

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where Dawn comes away with the million dollars, but it would most likely have to mean sitting in a final 3 with people other than Cochran or Eddie. Dawn’s problem is that she was close with people that she sent home unexpectedly (at least they thought they were close). Cochran didn’t have that problem so his moves seem more strategic. Dawn just seems heartless right now. All of the moments she’s had where she has broken down and had someone (mostly Brenda) there to comfort her – those all come back to bite her in a final three.

Dawn also makes a very convenient scapegoat after the whole Brenda vote. They likely all wanted her gone whether they voted for her or not (remember, this was a blindside and not everyone was privy to the new plan). They were going to make that move eventually – maybe next. But with Dawn’s vote they can all act like it was Dawn’s move.

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds: 12 to 1

Eddie

Eddie

Eddie could get some of the aforementioned angry revenge, anti-Dawn or Cochran votes, but it’s hard to see a scenario where he gets enough to win. But also keep in mind this is a final three – it’s not like he has to win half (plus one) of the jury votes). Eddie gets a lot of credit for hanging in the game, but it’s only been because, amazingly, he has almost been disregarded by power players like Cochran, Dawn, Brenda, & Andrea who needed to eliminate more traditionally worthy players first. If Eddie was worthy of significant jury votes he would have been eliminated before Malcolm or Reynold.

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds: 15 to 1

Erik

Erik

Erik’s problem is that he just hasn’t done anything in this game. He followed orders and hasn’t been much more than an allied vote. He talked a few times about how great it was to be a swing vote, but he never did anything with it. He never took control of the game or initiated any big moves – he let other people and then just played along. It’s hard to see a scenario where he gets enough votes, unless he can somehow manage to face Dawn and Sherri in the final. And even then, Dawn outwitted and outplayed enough people in that scenario for people to excuse any hatred they have for her.

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds: 100 to 1

Sherri

Sherri

We don’t see a scenario where Sherri even gets a vote in the final three, and if she makes it that far it’s only because she is being taken there to make it, essentially, a two-person vote. Cochran seems to know this, and it’s likely why he’s close to her.

This could backfire, though. By taking someone like Sherri, who isnt’ likely to receive any votes, it doesn’t split the votes that aren’t cast for you and requires you to win a majority of votes. This could prove problematic for Cochran if he has to face Eddie or if Dawn makes a compelling argument at the final Tribal Council.

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds: 100,000,000 to 1

Which Survivor: Caramoan castaway do you think will win? Who do you hope will win? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

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