Unofficial Guide to Ranking the Survivor: Cagayan Final Four

As we get ready for Wednesday’s Survivor: Cagayan finale, here are a few notes on the final four and what they’ve done to deserve to win. This is not a boot list and there are no future spoilers here.

A note about odds: The odds presented here are just for fun. Some of these scenarios are not likely to play out (i.e. Spencer vs. Woo or Spencer vs. Tony) but in the off chance that the winner of the final Immunity Challenge doesn’t get to choose his/her opponent we’ll give them anyway.



This has been Tony’s season, and he’s had the most face time by far. In the past that has indicated a winner, but Tony’s tendency to panic and not consider the consequences of his actions has likely led to some bitterness with people in the jury, enough of which were former friends and allies. He was the most dominant of anyone this season and he could see a vote or two or three based on that, but scorned jury members aren’t usually that level headed and would rather revenge-vote against him. The only way he gets there is if Kass wins the final Immunity Challenge; anyone else is going to take Kass and Tony would, too.

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Kass: Even

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Spencer: 50 to 1

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Woo: 25 to 1



There isn’t much not to like about Spencer; we don’t think anyone on the jury is angry with him, he fought hard and made it this far against all odds — he was on arguably the worst tribe in Survivor history and was on a minority alliance most of post-merge and won a bunch of Immunity Challenges — and, maybe most importantly, he’s not Tony or Kass. There’s no way Spencer makes it if he doesn’t win the final Immunity Challenge, so there’s THAT hurdle, but of everyone left he has the best odds of doing it.

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Kass: Even

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Tony: Even

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Woo: Even



Kass is a shoo-in for a final 2 because who WOULDN’T want to be be sitting next to the most disliked player in this game? But sorry Kass, there’s just no way. It’s strange how every season we seem to get at least one player who is willing to do whatever it takes with no regard to consequence and without care to what people think about them, then ask and expect the same people they railroaded to vote and give them a million dollars. It’s a great plan if you want to win $100,000. The three Os of Survivor are Outwit, Outlast, and Outplay, and too many times players do these things with no regard to the social game, which is the most crucial aspect of the game. Kass played the worst social game we’ve seen in a long time, and is only here because she’s not going to get any jury votes. Like we said – great if you’re playing for 2nd.

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Spencer: 500,000,000 to 1

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Tony: 1,000 to 1

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Woo: 250,000,000 to 1



Woo has almost as good of odds as Spencer does in a final 2 situation with one notable exception – he hasn’t fought nearly as hard and has been Tony’s lapdog and coattail rider all season, even coming off as scared to make a move against Tony when given the change. Cowardice has long been looked down on in juries, and it won’t help Woo in that case. Woo should beat Tony and would likely win unanimously against Kass but if Spencer wins the final Immunity Challenge it ends Woo’s game right there since he’s the only legitimate threat to Spencer winning. Basically the only way Woo gets there is if he wins the final Immunity Challenge but if he does it’s his game. We like Spencer’s chances of getting there better though.

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Spencer: 12 to 1

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Tony: 2 to 1

Unofficial Survivor Guide No-Spoiler Odds against Kass: Even

Note: This article was originally written for a final three scenario.

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2 Responses

  1. John says:

    It’s a final 2

  2. Gomer says:

    Tony played the best game and deserves to win. If there is another survivor all stars season he should be on it too.

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